Perhaps this was the news that everyone was waiting for. After two back to back deficient monsoon, this year monsoon rain is expected to be above normal.
As per the first forecast of this season released by India’s met department, the department has predicted that in 2016, the monsoon rainfall will be 106% of long term average.
In 2015, monsoon rains were 14% less than long period average.
Between 1951 to 2000 (fifty years), the country on an average received 89 centi meter rain fall during the monsoon season (June to September).
In an official release, the met department said: the El Nino conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean that established in April, 2015 reached to strong condition in July and peaked in December, 2015. Thereafter, the El Nino conditions started weakening even though Sea Surface Temperatures over the Pacific Ocean are still above normal.”
All these conditions will lead to above normal monsoon rainfall in India.
India’s 60 per cent agriculture is dependent on south west monsoon. Possibility of another deficient monsoon would be a severe blow to policy makers efforts to keep food inflation under check.
The centre has already asked state governments to chalk out a plan to increase the sowing area to boost production taking advantage of a good monsoon this year.